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Global Catastrophes and Trends : The Next Fifty Years
by Vaclav Smil

Summary: A wide-ranging, interdisciplinary look at global changes that may occur over the next fifty years-whether sudden and cataclysmic world-changing events or gradually unfolding trends. Fundamental change occurs most often in one of two ways: as a “fatal discontinuity,” a sudden catastrophic event that is potentially world changing, or as a persistent, gradual trend. Global catastrophes include volcanic eruptions, viral pandemics, wars, and large-scale terrorist attacks; trends are demographic, environmental, economic, and political shifts that unfold over time. In this provocative book, scientist Vaclav Smil takes a wide-ranging, interdisciplinary look at the catastrophes and trends the next fifty years may bring. Smil first looks at rare but cataclysmic events, both natural and human-produced, then at trends of global importance, including the transition from fossil fuels to other energy sources and growing economic and social inequality. He also considers environmental change-in some ways an amalgam of sudden discontinuities and gradual change-and assesses the often misunderstood complexities of global warming. Global Catastrophes and Trends does not come down on the side of either doom-and-gloom scenarios or techno-euphoria. Instead, Smil argues that understanding change will help us reverse negative trends and minimize the risk of catastrophe. show more

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Product details Format Paperback | 320 pages Dimensions 178 x 229 x 14mm | 499g Publication date 14 Sep 2012 Publisher MIT Press Ltd Imprint MIT Press Publication City/Country Cambridge, United States Language English Illustrations note 74 figures; 74 Illustrations, unspecified ISBN10 0262518228 ISBN13 9780262518222 Bestsellers rank 94,593

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